(NEW YORK) — El Nino is increasingly likely to return later this year, bringing potentially significant impacts to our weather, the upcoming hurricane season and global temperature trends, though its timing and strength remain uncertain, experts told ABC News.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued an El Nino Watch on Thursday, meaning that conditions are favorable for its development over the next six months. NOAA’s latest forecast puts the chance of El Nino developing in June through August at 62%, with higher odds expected by the fall months.
El Nino refers to the warmer-than-average phase of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural cycle where sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific rise and fall. The cooler-than-average phase is called La Nina, while near-average conditions are known as ENSO-neutral.
The current La Nina is expected to fade over the next month as equatorial Pacific waters warm, with ENSO-neutral conditions likely to persist through much of the Northern Hemisphere summer.
If El Nino forms, its potential strength remains highly uncertain. NOAA says there is roughly a 1 in 3 chance it will be strong by the end of the year, though current forecasts favor a weak-to-moderate event.
El Nino and La Nina events occur at irregular intervals, typically every 2 to 7 years. El Nino has been somewhat more frequent than La Nina in past observations, but both phases vary in timing and intensity from one cycle to the next.
Forecasters caution that El Nino predictions tend to be less accurate at this time of year and could change in the coming months.
“Keep in mind that because we’re making these forecasts during the spring season, a time of lower model accuracy, so there is large uncertainty,” said Michelle L’Heureux, physical scientist at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
This is largely because spring in the Northern Hemisphere is when sea surface patterns across the tropical Pacific Ocean are in a transitional phase.
“Predictions issued at this time of year are typically less reliable due to the so-called boreal spring predictability barrier, a well-known limitation affecting ENSO outlook skill,” the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in a statement.
There is usually a delay between the onset of El Nino and its associated effects, meaning it will likely be well into the second half of the year before impacts begin to unfold, based on the latest forecasts.
“An estimate for the length of time before consistent impacts are observed once El Nino forms is typically 1-2 months,” Jon Gottschalck, Chief of the Operational Prediction Branch at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center told ABC News. “This varies largely depending on other climate factors active at the time in both the tropics and extratropics, as well as the time of the year.”
Typical El Nino impacts across the United States
Impacts from El Nino, similar to La Nina, tend to be most consistent and pronounced from late autumn through early spring following the event’s onset, NOAA says.
Experts caution that the impacts on weather patterns are nuanced. Each season is different, and typical El Nino conditions don’t always materialize.
“Every El Nino is different in terms of timing, magnitude, and geographic extent, and such differences lead to variability in the impacts — on temperatures and rainfall, for example — on a global scale,” Andrew Kruczkiewicz, senior staff researcher at Columbia Climate School, said.
Typically, during El Nino, the northern half of the United States and parts of Alaska are more likely to see warmer than average temperatures, with near- to below-average temperatures favored along the southern tier of the U.S., most likely from Texas to the Southeast.
For precipitation, wetter than average conditions are typically observed along the southern tier of the U.S. in parts of California, the Southwest, Gulf Coast and Southeast U.S. Below average precipitation is frequently observed across parts of the northern Rockies, south-central Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes regions.
El Nino typically increases the odds of above-average snowfall in the southern Rockies, south-central Plains, mid-Atlantic and coastal areas of the Northeast with below-average snowfall favored in the northern Rockies, northern Plains and Great Lakes regions.
“The more consistent impacts on precipitation and temperature don’t occur until the winter months — so for 2026-27,” L’Heureux added.
How El Nino could influence hurricane season activity
The impact of El Nino on this year’s Atlantic and Eastern Pacific hurricane seasons will largely depend on when it unfolds and how strong it gets.
El Nino conditions often suppress activity during the Atlantic hurricane season by producing unfavorable atmospheric winds. In the Eastern Pacific, the opposite occurs, with favorable conditions supporting above-average hurricane season activity.
“It will likely suppress the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season somewhat, with increased sinking air and upper level wind shear over the Atlantic,” said Andy Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami’s Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies.
Vertical wind shear, which refers to changes in wind speed and direction with height in the atmosphere, is often a primary factor in below-average hurricane season activity. Strong vertical wind shear can tear a developing tropical system apart or even prevent it from forming, NOAA says.
Other factors, such as sea surface temperatures, also play an important role in tropical cyclone development and strength. Unseasonably warm ocean waters can partially offset the effects of unfavorable atmospheric winds. However, that will largely depend on sea surface temperature readings as the hurricane season ramps up, which is still months away.
“It’s a little early to say how far below average the Atlantic might be. That will also depend on what the Atlantic sea surface temperatures do – right now they’re average or a little below,” Hazelton added.
NOAA is expected to issue its official hurricane season outlook in May. The Eastern Pacific season begins May 15, followed by the Atlantic season on June 1.
Since El Nino is only one of several important variables considered, Gottschalck said it is important to wait until the outlook is released in May.
Global temperature records could be challenged again
The year 2024 ranked as the planet’s warmest year on record, following the last El Nino event, which emerged in mid-2023 and persisted through spring 2024, according to NOAA.
“The warmer ocean temperatures associated with El Nino, together with its tendency to favor warmer conditions in many areas, often contribute to warmer than normal global annual temperatures,” Gottschalck said.
Record highs in global average temperature often occur during El Nino years, but the phenomenon isn’t the sole reason for the record-breaking warmth, climate scientists say. Short-term El Nino temperature spikes occur on top of the long-term global warming trend, which is primarily driven by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.
“The WMO community will be carefully monitoring conditions in the coming months to inform decision-making. The most recent El Nino, in 2023-’24, was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said in a statement.
According to NOAA, 2025 ranked as the third-warmest year on record globally, trailing 2024 and 2023. The slightly lower ranking came amid recent La Nina conditions, which typically cause a temporary dip in global average temperatures.
Similar to the last event, El Nino typically has the greatest impact on global temperatures after it peaks, NOAA says, meaning a spike in global temperatures often lingers into the year following the event’s onset. The intensity of any upcoming El Nino will play a major role in whether global temperature records could be challenged in the near future.
According to the latest outlook from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, there is more than a 90% chance that 2026 will rank among the five warmest years on record, but the probability of it becoming the warmest year currently stands at about 1%. Those odds could rise significantly in 2027, depending on how the event unfolds.
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