Three key indices in a closely watched survey of west Michigan purchasing managers turned sharply negative in December, closing out 2022 on a decidedly downward trend that aligns with national economic surveys. The director of supply management research at Grand Valley State University’s Seidman College of Business, Brian Long, said he expects the National Bureau of Economic Research and other economists to declare a mild recession over the next few months.
“Keep in mind the headline unemployment numbers that we have been hearing in the news basically are calculated by adding only those people who are actively looking for work,” says Long. “It does not include discouraged workers, or more importantly, people who have dropped out of the workforce altogether.”
Long says office furniture orders remain soft as employers continue to retrench and assess their office needs. However, the survey showed automotive suppliers are still showing fairly healthy orders as they work through a backlog of orders and supply chains are finally showing signs of returning to pre-pandemic normalcy.
